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the anticipation is they want to get re-elected. they understand the republicans now have detectors. again, the market is saying we with believe in you. don't screw this up. >> all right. you have to get ready for the next hour. >> huge show coming up. timothy geithner at the top of the hour. we're going to find out what's changed since the sunday shows he was doing interviews on. anton, ben, see you soon. i'll see you at the top of the hour. >> capital gains rates are probably going to go up. does that hurt the market as well? >> we've seen a lot of companies sell themselves. it's been a problem in the banking industry because loans have been paid off. they want to grow loans. people are taking control and repaying their loans. i think it's already been anticipated. >> you've had a hot hand trading this market lately. what are you doing, especially bearing in mind we have a jobs number on friday. >> i'm a little concerned on the adp numbers. this is generally the weakest of the year. that's probably baked in a little bit. i think w
the anticipation is they want to get re-elected. they understand the republicans now have detectors. again, the market is saying we with believe in you. don't screw this up. >> all right. you have to get ready for the next hour. >> huge show coming up. timothy geithner at the top of the hour. we're going to find out what's changed since the sunday shows he was doing interviews on. anton, ben, see you soon. i'll see you at the top of the hour. >> capital gains rates are...
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Dec 3, 2012
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they have an election every two years and they got elected again and they've got constituents that sent them there for a reason. and then you've got the president would is just -- you know, just being hammered by the left on not caving this time around because he got so much grief the last time. this is setting up for us to go over the cliff, isn't it? what do you think? do we go over it or not? >> yeah, it is very difficult. and i feel bad for john boehner. he's in a difficult situation. i did want to remind john that he should look at the young, newer members that are so difficult to persuade to make an easy deal compromise. and remember, it wasn't too many years ago, john, that was you and me and we were driving bob michael and president bush nuts when the democrats were offering them, give us the tax increases now, we'll give you the spending cuts later and we were saying, oh, no, they'll never keep their word on the spending cuts. they'll tax the tax increases. quite frankly, the speaker has a difficult role to play here. he's seen by so many people as the principal guardian of our
they have an election every two years and they got elected again and they've got constituents that sent them there for a reason. and then you've got the president would is just -- you know, just being hammered by the left on not caving this time around because he got so much grief the last time. this is setting up for us to go over the cliff, isn't it? what do you think? do we go over it or not? >> yeah, it is very difficult. and i feel bad for john boehner. he's in a difficult situation....
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also remember the exit polling from the elections that shows people are fine with taxes going up on the top 2%. this is part of why the deal from john boehner was a non starter. he said how about deduction caps so you have lots of taxes. is he in trouble with his right wing? >> yes, he is. they have purged the scam. you said it. spending cuts. they are talking about $350 billion. what matters here is the numbers. we can't afford this. we have $16 trillion in debt. we have $87 trillion in unfunded highbilities those are promises that are made that we have to keep. >> guys, this is part of what is interesting about this conversation. when you hear the speaker talking about the loop holes that is the same rhetoric that we heard from mit romney. >> they are using the stuff that is done in the budget control last year. >> those are terrible talking points. >> let me say this point. >> hang on a second. i want to go to guy benson on another point. there is a lot of talk that the republicans might have a doom's day scenario. if there is a budget stalemate, then the republicans will allow a vot
also remember the exit polling from the elections that shows people are fine with taxes going up on the top 2%. this is part of why the deal from john boehner was a non starter. he said how about deduction caps so you have lots of taxes. is he in trouble with his right wing? >> yes, he is. they have purged the scam. you said it. spending cuts. they are talking about $350 billion. what matters here is the numbers. we can't afford this. we have $16 trillion in debt. we have $87 trillion in...
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Dec 4, 2012
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. >> i was so hopeful, i wasn't obviously thrilled with the election results, but i actually thought that result might be the result we needed to get thefshs done. >> in a way you you have the situation where -- >> you extend 98 but not the 2? believing that story is so -- >> either raise them on everyone or raise them on -- either it will hurt the economy if you raise taxes or it's not. on 98 it won't hurt, on 2 it will -- >> we'll have more on this argument. in the meantime, let's talk about some of the other headlines. financial firms are gathering for the goldman sachs financial services contractors. a key presenter is brian money tha moynihan. we talked about his reports of planned fee increases. plus there was the issue of president obama's likely pick to follow tim geithner at treasury. we talked about how buffett threw out jamie dimon's name. here is what moynihan thinks about that idea. >> i won't give individual names, but i think what warren is expressing a view which i agree with is that we need to have very bright, very talented and very broad experienced people help pus
. >> i was so hopeful, i wasn't obviously thrilled with the election results, but i actually thought that result might be the result we needed to get thefshs done. >> in a way you you have the situation where -- >> you extend 98 but not the 2? believing that story is so -- >> either raise them on everyone or raise them on -- either it will hurt the economy if you raise taxes or it's not. on 98 it won't hurt, on 2 it will -- >> we'll have more on this argument. in...
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>> you would have to elect romney to do that. you're not going to extend the bush tax cuts for the high end. >> for another minute. >> not even for a milliseconmil. >> the republicans want to bargain away and let taxes go up by the end of the year and have the big negotiations occur next year when the president will want even more increases in taxes. >> let me ask a different question and it's sort of the -- >> and then we got to go. >> here's the opportunity for the president to eclipse the whole thing, i don't think he's going to but he could eclipse the whole scene. let's not relitigate '01 and '03 let's bridge to tax reform and move forward. the senate democrats not answering their phones are the ones to ask about this one. >> congressman, thank you for being on. >>> the final countdown to the jobs report. stick around. ♪ ♪ mom? dad? guys? [ engine turns over ] [ engine revs ] ♪ he'll be fine. [ male announcer ] more people are leaving bmw, mercedes and lexus for audi than ever before. take advantage of exceptional valu
>> you would have to elect romney to do that. you're not going to extend the bush tax cuts for the high end. >> for another minute. >> not even for a milliseconmil. >> the republicans want to bargain away and let taxes go up by the end of the year and have the big negotiations occur next year when the president will want even more increases in taxes. >> let me ask a different question and it's sort of the -- >> and then we got to go. >> here's the...
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Dec 6, 2012
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but blacks -- let's see. 95% of african-americans voted for president obama in this last election. what do you make of that? what does that tell you? >> well, the first thing we have to start looking at is what it's going to take for us to get the respect of both parties, and that comes down to us being a people that are principled over anything else. we have 95% of any race that would vote for a person or party, it kind of helps them to be taken for granted. at this point, what does the democratic party have to do to win our vote? actually, just be around. so it's time for us as a people to start putting our principles first. i think we should be ashamed of ourselves in certain areas, those who decided that the education is so important to them, they have a passion for it. why would you vote for a person who decides the union is much more important for them. >> in other words, school choice. i'm going to read from the notes. you tell me if i'm wrong. but this is tough stuff. you say in your notes, obama is the most aggressive anti-black policymaker in modern history. that's tough
but blacks -- let's see. 95% of african-americans voted for president obama in this last election. what do you make of that? what does that tell you? >> well, the first thing we have to start looking at is what it's going to take for us to get the respect of both parties, and that comes down to us being a people that are principled over anything else. we have 95% of any race that would vote for a person or party, it kind of helps them to be taken for granted. at this point, what does the...
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media reports suggesting opposition party could win a solid majority the next election. so what is the -- on the yen side of that trade, what are you forecasting? >> the market is aware of that and the opposition party if they do win, they could pressure the boj to try to do more in qe and that would tend to weaken the yen. so the yen is a carry trade back into play over the last one month and shorts have increased significantly over the last one month. so i think that as well as the better macro story in asia has led to quite a few carry trades against the yen and the yuan being one where it has outperformed the yen significantly over the past two, three months. >> south korea sort of dumping a lot of the currency in november, trying to slow the rally. are they going to be anymore successful than they have been? >> it's a mixture of that as well as attempts to reduce speculative lays on the forward so they have for example reduce d the cap on swaps outstanding. but i think players are a mixture of real players and if you do believe that the global economy is on a better
media reports suggesting opposition party could win a solid majority the next election. so what is the -- on the yen side of that trade, what are you forecasting? >> the market is aware of that and the opposition party if they do win, they could pressure the boj to try to do more in qe and that would tend to weaken the yen. so the yen is a carry trade back into play over the last one month and shorts have increased significantly over the last one month. so i think that as well as the...
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the speaker characterizing this as a status quo election. that's not the way the white house sees it. the white house sees it as an election they won and they picked up seats in the congress. the speaker here reminding the president, hey, you know what, we control the house of representatives. he goes on to characterize the president's proffer from last week. boehner saying, we cannot in good conscience agree to this approach which is neither balanced nor realistic. they talk about possibly raising some entitlement reform proposals with the president. but then the speaker and his co-signers here have this sentence, mindful of the status quo election and questions on entitlement reform we recognize it would be counterproductive to privately or publicly propose entitlement reforms you or the leader of your party are unwilling to changed in near term. boehner is laying out a revision going back to the simpson/bowles plan in some way, shape or form and that's the gist of this offer from the speaker to the president. we're diving into it in real
the speaker characterizing this as a status quo election. that's not the way the white house sees it. the white house sees it as an election they won and they picked up seats in the congress. the speaker here reminding the president, hey, you know what, we control the house of representatives. he goes on to characterize the president's proffer from last week. boehner saying, we cannot in good conscience agree to this approach which is neither balanced nor realistic. they talk about possibly...
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we thought we'd have elections march/april, there's the prospect it could be a snap election much earlier perhaps in the new year. now the good news is there isn't a huge amount of blowout on the bonds at the short end of the italian markets. the yields are higher but not huge relative to where we've been but on the ten-year italian market you can see we're slightly higher but no great shakes overall. it means the rally in the peripheral bond market we've witnessed in italy and spain has now stalled at this stage. remember we had the auction in spain yesterday and the yields are slightly higher relative to where we've been, they're still relatively depressed. we talk about the problems in europe, i thought it was worth pointing out amidst all the malaise what is happening in germany today an astounding manufacturing german manufacturing orders result from germany up 3.9% in october, a phenomenal performance from german industry and it's worth bearing in mind that german industry is basically in a single currency that is too low arguably for what it should be at. the deutsche mark would ha
we thought we'd have elections march/april, there's the prospect it could be a snap election much earlier perhaps in the new year. now the good news is there isn't a huge amount of blowout on the bonds at the short end of the italian markets. the yields are higher but not huge relative to where we've been but on the ten-year italian market you can see we're slightly higher but no great shakes overall. it means the rally in the peripheral bond market we've witnessed in italy and spain has now...
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before we got really wrapped up in the election we were wringing our hands on how the earnings season was not coming out very well. i think when we start paying attention to earnings again it will be a problem. >> coming up next is dell really a buy? our traders will make the call on whether this beaten down tech stock is back from the brink. it could be called the ultimate fiscal cliff trade. find out which investment americans are pouring into. much more straight ahead. if you think running a restaurant is hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. music is a universal language. but when i was in an accident... i was worried the health care system spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. information on my phone. connection to doctors who get where i'm from. and tools to estimate what my ca
before we got really wrapped up in the election we were wringing our hands on how the earnings season was not coming out very well. i think when we start paying attention to earnings again it will be a problem. >> coming up next is dell really a buy? our traders will make the call on whether this beaten down tech stock is back from the brink. it could be called the ultimate fiscal cliff trade. find out which investment americans are pouring into. much more straight ahead. if you think...
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Dec 10, 2012
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after the election, the risk that the market basically these two portfolios are traching each other are perfect mirror images here. they were betting at this point we were going to go over the cliff. in other words the -- over the cliff portfolio was the outperformer until today. they have crossed. so now it's gone lower. we hit the cliff and avoid it is going higher at this point. two things to watch for this week. we got all that treasury paper coming to market here. the yield has moved higher. but we'll see what happens there. then the other thing is natural gas at a two-month low and moving lower because of all the warm weather in the markets now. nat gas subpoena in fact we come off this low here. with the market up 20 points here, what do you make of this -- of our model portfolio fiscal cliff portfolios? >> i was very surprised that it crossed today. i mean, with very little activity, very little movement on pretty much any stock that it crossed today. i was surprised with that. i'm becoming a little more convinced that we're not going to have any resolution at all. i thought the
after the election, the risk that the market basically these two portfolios are traching each other are perfect mirror images here. they were betting at this point we were going to go over the cliff. in other words the -- over the cliff portfolio was the outperformer until today. they have crossed. so now it's gone lower. we hit the cliff and avoid it is going higher at this point. two things to watch for this week. we got all that treasury paper coming to market here. the yield has moved...
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i doubt our elected officials would be brazen enough to leave washington without an agreement? this is my hunch. if, and that is an if we are going to see a deal, i suspect it'll come in the next two weeks. if we know anything about d.c. lawmakers, their time off may be more of a sacred cow than the belief on tax and spending. if i'm right, it's too bad that their own self-interests motivate them more. >>> before we look the a the day on wall street. and it was a quiet day. at the end of the day, we did see the markets get a good lift up about 40 points on the industrial average. nasdaq composite picked up 15 1/2 points. and the s&p tonight gain of 4.5% points, check out apple today, we did see a bit of a rebound after the big selloff yesterday. apple continues to trade higher in realtime, up 1.5% on apple at
i doubt our elected officials would be brazen enough to leave washington without an agreement? this is my hunch. if, and that is an if we are going to see a deal, i suspect it'll come in the next two weeks. if we know anything about d.c. lawmakers, their time off may be more of a sacred cow than the belief on tax and spending. if i'm right, it's too bad that their own self-interests motivate them more. >>> before we look the a the day on wall street. and it was a quiet day. at the end...
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>> the president himself kourg the election said 2 1/2 to one. now his proposal last week has $1.6 trillion in tax increases, $400 billion in spending cuts and another $200 billion in spending, plus an unlimited ability to borrow and raise the debt limit >> you'd be okay with 2 1/2 to 1? >> the bowles-simpson was about 3 to 1. frankly i don't think it's a revenue problem. i don't want to go over revenues. but you know, if we could get a deal that would put the country on a sound fiscal footing and change this trajectory that we're on, there perhaps could be some republican support for it. i'm not sure where i would come in. >> the -- part of the cliff that bothers you the most is that you'd like to do something with the sequester? or, if we were to sunset all the bush tax cuts? that would -- >> that would go -- republicans want to get rid of the deficit. that almost cures the deficit. and that was the rates that we had at one point. and they were supposed to sunset. and i guess there's never a good time. but what if they all sunsetted and you did
>> the president himself kourg the election said 2 1/2 to one. now his proposal last week has $1.6 trillion in tax increases, $400 billion in spending cuts and another $200 billion in spending, plus an unlimited ability to borrow and raise the debt limit >> you'd be okay with 2 1/2 to 1? >> the bowles-simpson was about 3 to 1. frankly i don't think it's a revenue problem. i don't want to go over revenues. but you know, if we could get a deal that would put the country on a...
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. >>> now over to japan, where election timing may spell budget delays. we have the story from tokyo. >> the election campaign has officially kicked off in japan, but there are worries the budget is not likely to be ready pi the end of this year. they will likely call a special session to elect a new prime minister, then select a cabinet before moving on to budget matters. once they reconvene in january, the new government would likely pass the supplementary budget first before submitting its fiscal 2013 plan in february. so a senior lawmaker predicts that the fiscal 2013 budget will not actually pass until mid may. that's more than a month into the new fiscal year. and if the government can't get the job done by the end of march, a provisional budget will be needed. opinion polls show the gap between the ldp and the ruling democratic party has been narrowing. that means if the ldp can't get their majority, these bills could be delayed even more. back to you, ross. >> all right, thanks for that. that's the late fres the nikkei. still to come, the business
. >>> now over to japan, where election timing may spell budget delays. we have the story from tokyo. >> the election campaign has officially kicked off in japan, but there are worries the budget is not likely to be ready pi the end of this year. they will likely call a special session to elect a new prime minister, then select a cabinet before moving on to budget matters. once they reconvene in january, the new government would likely pass the supplementary budget first before...
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we thought it would be weak during an election year. there's a whole body of academic evidence that public policy certainly does impair it. but we were stunned as early as the first quarter of this year to see the tech sector, ibm, talking about flat revenue growth in the u.s., and there we think there's a level of cap-ex that has just been foregone because of this public policy uncertainty that, even in a semistable environment, it should rebound a bit. and that could be a big driver for profit growth in '14. >> you point out that your sector positioning, you say it's cautious, but you are upping technology to overweight. underweighting domestic cyclical. if cap-ex is a phenomenon next year why would you not be more highly leveraged to that? >> well, we think that first of all, the numbers, and the valuations, look fully played out. we think they still have housing market euphoria. and, have looked at things like consumer confidence going up, at least until friday, as a result of house prices stabilizing. for us, that's the reason why
we thought it would be weak during an election year. there's a whole body of academic evidence that public policy certainly does impair it. but we were stunned as early as the first quarter of this year to see the tech sector, ibm, talking about flat revenue growth in the u.s., and there we think there's a level of cap-ex that has just been foregone because of this public policy uncertainty that, even in a semistable environment, it should rebound a bit. and that could be a big driver for...
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he wasn't happy with the 2012 elections. do you think conservatism just didn't make the case in the elections last november? >> we always have to do a better job at how we speak about liberty, the constitution and how inclusive it is and how it offers things to people who have not yet experienced the fruits of liberty. so i think we can always do a better job. what i will say about jim demint is he has started and brought some liberty-minded libertarian/conservatives to the senate. we have a pretty good caucus now. there's a real strong jim demint influence in our caucus. >> great stuff. senator rand paul, kentucky, thank you sir. all the best. >> thank you. >>> so besides praising jim demint, senator rand paul said something very interesting. he said he will not vote for a filibuster. he said, let larry reid, no filibust filibuster, 51 vote, simple majority and then he will vote no and let the democrats have the onus of the big tax hike. quite interesting. now here's a political threat. is the republicans at risk of becomin
he wasn't happy with the 2012 elections. do you think conservatism just didn't make the case in the elections last november? >> we always have to do a better job at how we speak about liberty, the constitution and how inclusive it is and how it offers things to people who have not yet experienced the fruits of liberty. so i think we can always do a better job. what i will say about jim demint is he has started and brought some liberty-minded libertarian/conservatives to the senate. we...
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sandy, the election, holiday workers. you say three asterisks. >> yeah, i think it has to have three asterisks, it doesn't fit in with initial claims and other items. they said sandy had no impact on the number. i think that may be because the number was basically taken before the impact was held. i think they're going to see a lot of revisions here. >> next week setting up. it's going to be another big one. same store sales from various companies and, of course, the fed. >> the fed is important. it's another one of those two-day meetings. they're going to take down operation twist. this will be important because he gets to announce at a press conference. that gives them a chance to explain what the mood of the meeting was. it will give them a chance to hear what the new proposal, qe whatever, is supposed to do and how they want to set it up. so i think the markets will hone in on that very, very carefully. >> do you think we see an acceleration of purchases, a revamp of twists? will there be an event as i said earlier? >
sandy, the election, holiday workers. you say three asterisks. >> yeah, i think it has to have three asterisks, it doesn't fit in with initial claims and other items. they said sandy had no impact on the number. i think that may be because the number was basically taken before the impact was held. i think they're going to see a lot of revisions here. >> next week setting up. it's going to be another big one. same store sales from various companies and, of course, the fed. >>...
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Dec 3, 2012
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he's had ever since september of 2011 when the grand bargain talks broke out -- broke down and post-election he's made clear this is going to remain an element of his strategy, is campaigning with the public. he made that trip to pennsylvania last week. he's trying to use the public, which polls show agrees with him on some of the key questions like top rate, to put pressure on the congress to move. we'll see how effective that can be. certainly it hasn't been effecti effective heretofore but it is possible it could and the president believes having won the election he's on the high side. >> 2:00 on twitter. john, thanks very much. >>> one of the overhangs for the fiscal cliff for investors is what will happen on dividend tax rates. more and more corporations aren't waiting to find out exactly what happens with more than $22.5 billion worth of special difficult sends having been announced from 98 companies in the fourth quarter so far. today, hca, dish network, cato joining the list. jim iuorio is a cnbc contributor. >> i've been looking at this from every ang toll fiangle to find a tradable
he's had ever since september of 2011 when the grand bargain talks broke out -- broke down and post-election he's made clear this is going to remain an element of his strategy, is campaigning with the public. he made that trip to pennsylvania last week. he's trying to use the public, which polls show agrees with him on some of the key questions like top rate, to put pressure on the congress to move. we'll see how effective that can be. certainly it hasn't been effecti effective heretofore but...
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i think we still need to get through the election or the post election haze. i would say that -- to everybody, listen, we're no longer running for office here. this is about getting back down to brass tacks and figuring out how to solve it. >> which side is not campaigning anymore? >> you've got to listen to who's not talking. i think that's -- in washington, it's always who's not talking. >> we haven't really heard much from senate leadership. >> so that's where our deal gets carved out? >> well, when you start to hear some things from the senate leadership, then you'll know we're getting close to getting something done. and right now they're sending out minions and talking about things that i think are really, you know, staking out claims so they can say they've done that for their constituencies. but it's time right now for the moderates on both sides to step up. for those that are not necessarily at risk of losing elections in the near term to step up and say, listen, just like the leaders said earlier in the program. this is a math problem. it's really no
i think we still need to get through the election or the post election haze. i would say that -- to everybody, listen, we're no longer running for office here. this is about getting back down to brass tacks and figuring out how to solve it. >> which side is not campaigning anymore? >> you've got to listen to who's not talking. i think that's -- in washington, it's always who's not talking. >> we haven't really heard much from senate leadership. >> so that's where our...
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i think businesses are holding back partly because of the election, which is now passed obviously. and the fiscal cliff. i still believe that we're going to end up kicking the can down the road. i think there's lots of pent-up demand in the economy so we're not going to go into a recession. in fact, i think next year we could see some acceleration. one of the key ways to see this is just to look at auto sales for november. they surged to 15.5 million. every time we have a dip in demand because of sandy or something else, we come back. this economy is super resilient and i think we'll be able to go over the cliff or go through the cliff without having a recession. >> i hope you're right. my concern is that you are absolutely wrong. actually the economy is slowing to stall speed and markets could correct badly on the news moving forward. we learned this week that manufacturing contracted in november for the first time in three months. we had analysts on the program talking about the channel checks indicating softness for a second month and today goldman has downgraded growth in the f
i think businesses are holding back partly because of the election, which is now passed obviously. and the fiscal cliff. i still believe that we're going to end up kicking the can down the road. i think there's lots of pent-up demand in the economy so we're not going to go into a recession. in fact, i think next year we could see some acceleration. one of the key ways to see this is just to look at auto sales for november. they surged to 15.5 million. every time we have a dip in demand because...
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doing precisely that. >> got through the election on social issues. on the economy, i think it's pretty clear that nobody voted for four more years of the current economy. four more years to get his house in order and he's not going to get his house in order using the red herring of taxes when it's entitlemen entitlements. it just isn't going to work, simon. >> i get it. i'm just pointing out -- >> you know what, let's take jobless claims. >> i get it. >> over the last three days, jobless claims to sustain that renewal again which i think is a bad idea, that's 30 to $35 billion a year. i heard many democrats say that's a small amount, why shouldn't we do that? that's about halfway to the total amount they're talking about taxes. but whent's that, it's small. but when it's the 70 to $80 billion am toortized over ten years, all of a sudden it's big. i'm not saying don't raise taxes. if i signed the pledge, i would do it for good reasons. i haven't seen a good reason. i haven't seen a plan that promotes the big guy in the room. >> see you in the next hou
doing precisely that. >> got through the election on social issues. on the economy, i think it's pretty clear that nobody voted for four more years of the current economy. four more years to get his house in order and he's not going to get his house in order using the red herring of taxes when it's entitlemen entitlements. it just isn't going to work, simon. >> i get it. i'm just pointing out -- >> you know what, let's take jobless claims. >> i get it. >> over the...